The addition of the individual contributions to expected excess return in Our study yields an expected 1-year excess return of 88.2 bp for A-rated corporate bonds with a maturity of 5-years. This is significantly below the initial spread of 100 bps. The difference reflects the fact that a downgrade is more probable for A-rated corporate bonds than an upgrade, and that the associated spread changes are not symmetric. The magnitude of spread widenings due to downgrades is usually much higher than the spread tightening after rating upgrades. It is interesting to note that among investment grade bonds the ratio of upgrades to downgrades is most favorable for Baa-rated bonds. However, in the case of a downgrade these bonds often suffer massive price declines, because they fall below investment grade levels.

Similar to the level of interest rates itself the slope of the yield curve also is an indicator for the economic environment. Generally, the slope of the yield curve is seen as a good proxy for future economic growth and corporate profits.

Steep yield curves imply that future rates are expected to be higher than at present. Asteep 2s10s slope and a further steepening of the 2s10s slope in the past often have been followed by positive excess returns of corporate bonds. Usually, one observes a steepness in this part of the curve at the end of a recession and at the start of an expansion. When the expansion finally materializes the curve flattens, and inflation concerns cause central banks to raise interest rates. In this environment, credit usually suffers, and investors should be particularly cautious when overweighting cyclical credits.

Globally, the low interest rate environment in the first years of the new millennium has spurred investors’ interest in credit as a way to boost returns. However, one has to be aware that there is a correlation between the level of interest rates, the slope of the yield curve and credit spreads because both the yield curve and credit spreads reflect the state of the economy.

Since they are driven by expectations about the same underlying factor, the relation between the yield curve and credit spreads has an impact on top-down driven asset allocation and duration decisions.

In the past, credit spreads have been closely correlated with interest rates. There is typically a negative correlation between spreads and the level of interest rates. As interest rates increase due to an improving outlook for future economic growth and rising price pressure, credit quality tends to improve because firms have opportunities to strengthen their future earnings and cashflows. Similarly, a flatter money market slope (2 years–6 months) is usually positive for credit spreads because it indicates better economic conditions. In a difficult economic environment, such as at the trough of the recession, the money market curve tends to be very steep and credit usually underperforms treasuries, especially at the long end.

Savings evoke deep emotions. Saving is about entitlement and faith, not fear and greed. Entitlement and faith are derived from generational experience, religion, and the meaning of life. Every community has had a Great Depression. Hard work does not always produce excess. When the well runs dry, the community ends. Communities such as the Inca and the Anasazi tribes worked hard, created vast roads and irrigation system, yet disappeared from the planet. Hard work does not guarantee anything. The Roaring 20s were full of frivolity, yet produced abundance; the 30s witnessed hard labor that did not overcome scarcity.

Good gods or good government are required to produce savings. The ancient tribes had rituals, harvest festivals, and the like to protect and celebrate their savings. Their feelings were primal and intense: gratitude for the bounty of nature but entitlement to share that bounty once harvested and stored. Every member of the tribe was involved. Today, feelings about savings are just as primal and intense, and involve every member of society.

When savings systems collapse, no one is unaffected. In the 1930s, massive bank failures lead to deflation in some countries and hyperinflation in others. Incredibly strong feelings were unleashed. Desperation led to Nazism, wars, revolutions, and massive New Deals. When all savings disappear, gods are abandoned and governments overthrown.

Saving is as old as humankind. Ancient tribes stored grain, seeds, implements, and ceremonial objects. Anthropological digs unearth bins and storage jars filled with valuable treasures.

The emotions associated with savings are deeply ingrained in our psyche. Saving requires work beyond producing the daily bread. Hard work creates a sense of entitlement. Workers earn their Social Security payments. Savings are not a gift from anyone. Savers do not trust individuals with their hard-earned cash. Only God or good government can be trusted.

Saving requires a deep faith that the excess will be preserved for future use. A safe community is necessary; without it, savings will be stolen. Saving tests our faith in the community.

Today we save as a community through government-guaranteed bank accounts, Social Security taxes, and other government taxes and programs. The current debate over Social Security and Medicare is part of our ritual and ceremony. A threat to savings is a threat to the whole community. The idea that Social Security should be “invested” in stocks challenges the sacred nature of savings.